Water Supply Forecast Shows Record Snow in Northern Parts of West, Parched in Southwest

USDA Blog Post:

Posted by Spencer Miller, Natural Resources Conservation Service, on April 14, 2014 at 1:00 PM

Streamflow in the West consists largely of accumulated mountain snow that melts and flows into streams as temperatures warm. (NRCS photo)

March storms increased snowpack in the northern half of the West but didn’t provide much relief for the dry southern half, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center (NWCC) in its April 2014 water supply forecast.

According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), most of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and northern parts of Colorado and Utah are expected to have near normal or above normal water supplies, according to the forecast.  Far below normal streamflow is expected for southern Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah and western Nevada.

Early April is commonly regarded as the transition from snow accumulation to snowmelt, making the April 1 water supply forecast of key importance for planning, according to NWCC hydrologist Cara McCarthy.

“Many water managers, reservoir operators, irrigation districts and hydroelectric power companies make significant strategic decisions based on the April forecasts,” McCarthy said.

In states where snowmelt accounts for the majority of the seasonal water supply, information about snowpack serves as an indicator of future water supply. Streamflow in the West consists largely of accumulated mountain snow that melts and flows into streams as temperatures warm. NRCS scientists analyze the snowpack, air temperature, soil moisture and other measurements taken from remote sites to develop the water supply forecasts.

For the second consecutive month, many snow telemetry, or SNOTEL, sites in Montana, Wyoming, and parts of Idaho, Washington, and Oregon received two to three times the normal amount of precipitation. The Cascade Mountains in Washington went from extremely dry in January to a normal snowpack currently and Montana and Wyoming snowpack is now at record levels.

“There’s flooding potential in the Missouri River basin,” McCarthy said. “These areas will be most vulnerable if snow melts rapidly during a hot spell, or if there’s extreme rain while the streams are swollen with snowmelt.”

NRCS’ streamflow forecasts are one of the tools used to assess drought conditions. USDA is partnering with western states to help mitigate the severe effects of drought on agriculture.

Since 1939, NRCS has conducted snow surveys and issued regular water supply forecasts. Since the late 1970s, NRCS has been installing, operating and maintaining an extensive, high-elevation automated system called SNOTEL, designed to collect snowpack and related climatic data in the western U.S. and Alaska.

The center will continue to monitor and forecast water supplies for the next two months. View the April Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast map or view information by state. And to learn more about how NRCS is helping private landowners deal with drought, visit NRCS’ drought resources. You can also visit USDA’s disaster and drought information page.

Watch the April water supply forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoK5Vdd3NUc

Jointly Developed Watershed Assessment Model Being Used in Yosemite National Park

USDA Blog Post:

Posted by Tara T. Weaver-Missick, USDA-Agricultural Research Service Information Staff, on December 3, 2013 at 3:00 PM

Bridalveil Falls, Yosemite National Park, California (USDA-NRCS photo by Ron Nichols).

This post is part of the Science Tuesday feature series on the USDA blog. Check back each week as we showcase stories and news from USDA’s rich science and research portfolio.

An award-winning watershed assessment tool, the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA), was deployed to assess potential Rim Fire threats in Yosemite National Park in California.  The park experienced a devastating fire that began on August 17, 2013, and took several months to contain. The fire burned more than 400 square miles in and around the park, cost $125.8 million to date, and is considered one of the largest wildfires in California’s history.

BAER (Burned Area Emergency Response) is a multi-agency group that includes USDA’s Forest Service and others, and is responsible for identifying potential threats such as downstream flooding and developing plans to rehabilitate and restore burned areas. BAER teams use AGWA to target immediate efforts to prevent threats to people, wildlife and the land.  Using AGWA combined with the burn severity map produced by BAER teams, experts can rapidly pull together information on pre- and post-fire conditions. For example, knowing where to apply mulch after a fire can reduce runoff and erosion and can help minimize downstream risks from fire induced land cover and soil changes.

AGWA has already been successfully used for post-fire BAER team watershed assessments following fires in Arizona, New Mexico, California, Idaho and Washington.  AGWA was jointly developed by scientists with the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Southwest Watershed Research Center in Tucson, AZ, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Universities of Arizona and Wyoming.

ARS researchers and their partners originally developed the computer model as a multipurpose computer system and software tool designed for managing and analyzing water quantity and quality to help keep our Nation’s watersheds cleaner. AGWA uses nationally available data sources to rapidly establish and execute results from two ARS-developed watershed models, the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model (KINEROS2) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT).  It enables the user to visualize and compare model results to understand the impact of a certain practice on a given landscape.

How we manage activities that take place on crop production areas, rangelands, pastures, forests, meadows, and urban areas influences the quantity and quality of water available for domestic, industrial, agricultural and ecological uses. You can learn more about AGWA at www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa.

Moving Up and Out - These Trees Were Made for Walking

USDA Blog Post:

Posted by Joanna Stancil, State and Private Forestry, U.S. Forest Service, on December 3, 2013 at 1:00 PM

Although birch trees can’t literally walk, warming temperatures are causing a gradual migration of these and other tree and plant species to northern or higher elevation climates. USDA photo.

With large areas of our planet heating up because of climate change, some trees (and plants) are pulling up roots and heading north, to higher elevations and to cooling climes—well, sort of.

A U.S. Forest Service-led study suggests there are a few dozen tree species in the eastern U.S. that are moving north at an unexpected rate.

“For some plants and trees, moving north is real and their only chance for survival,” said Chris Woodall, a research forester for Northern Research Station and the study’s author. “Our study confirms a link between global warming and forest migration. It’s no longer conjecture.”

In fact, some tree species may be able to migrate from their home range more than 60 miles in a century. That could mean the yellow birch from the eastern U.S. might cross into Canada by the early 2100s. Other trees that are moving north or to higher elevations include the northern white cedar, American basswood, sugar maple, black ash and bigtooth aspen.

Trees depend on wind currents, birds or other animals to transport their seeds. Now seeds deposited in northern ranges, that were once too cold for these species, have also warmed and are now suitable for some migrating trees and plant species to take root.

Another study led by the University of Arizona found Alligator juniper at an elevation of 3,500 feet in the upland desert and grasslands of the Catalina Mountains near Tucson. Today, you won’t find the first stands of alligator junipers until you reach 5,000 feet.

Leading by Example: Conservation in Arizona

Save up to 40% on closeout textbooks




USDA Blog Post:

Posted by Beverly Moseley, NRCS, on September 18, 2013 at 11:05 AM

Newly installed pivot irrigation lines run behind Gerry Gonzalez, NRCS district conservationist in Douglas (left) and farmer Alfredo Zamora.

Travel 30 miles south of Alfredo and Sabrina Zamora’s farm in Cochise County, Ariz., and the imposing border fence between the U.S. and Mexico rises up across the horizon. This border county is rural, arid, open land where the Zamoras have spent their lives farming.

The couple is well known in the area for their cotton, pecans and alfalfa crops and they are no strangers at the local USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service office in Douglas. They’ve worked with NRCS over the years to plan out and implement conservation on their farm, including more efficient water and irrigation practices, the use of crop residue to improve soil health and the reduction of soil erosion.

Both Zamoras grew up in Cochise County, and from a young age, they were in the fields working for area farmers. They left to attend college, but returned home after graduation in the 1990s to farm their own land. Almost immediately, Alfredo consulted with NRCS about available assistance.

“It was very hard for somebody like me with very little experience and no money to go into a government office and ask for things. We’ve come a long way in the last 20 years; I’d say in that I feel completely comfortable going in there,” Alfredo says.

Recently, the Zamoras replaced four outdated pivot irrigation systems with new upgraded ones on their cropland with help from the USDA StrikeForce Rural Growth and Opportunity initiative. The new pivot irrigation lines are 10 percent more efficient in water use and electricity and should last up to 30 years, ultimately saving not just water, but also money.

The national initiative addresses high-priority funding and technical assistance needs in rural communities in 16 states, including Arizona, with a special emphasis on historically underserved communities and areas with persistent poverty.

Gerry Gonzalez, district conservationist with the NRCS in Douglas, was excited when he learned that Arizona was part of StrikeForce, because the initiative provides NRCS additional funding to do specialized outreach to historically underserved communities.

“Here along the border areas, there are a lot of small landowners—a lot of underserved, nontraditional clients and the USDA Strikeforce initiative provides opportunities for them,” Gonzalez says.

The Zamoras have worked closely over the years with Gonzalez and agree with him that the initiative provides an opportunity for people interested in farming to possibly reach that goal.

The Zamoras serve as an example of how NRCS can help make a difference on their operation. They regularly hold field days on their farm to share with other local farmers the benefits of USDA programs and to increase participation in those programs, especially among Hispanic farmers, who USDA considers a historically underserved population.

Follow NRCS on Twitter.

Check out other conservation-related stories on the USDA blog.

Vibrant alfalfa, along with other crops like cotton and pecans, are grown by Alfredo and Sabrina Zamora on their farm in Douglas, Ariz.